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Photo: Adelheid Rutenburges

Photo: Adelheid Rutenburges

Research

The Chair for International Growth and Business Cycle Theory aims for research at highest international level. The quality of our research is indicated by publications in high-ranked international journals or monographs. Our interest covers a variety of fields in modern economics. These fields include:

  •             dynamic macroeconomics and economic growth
  •             business cycle dynamics
  •             development economics
  •             economics of conflict
  •             international trade and international integration
  •             labor economics and human capital
  •             financial economics
  •             environmental and resource economics
  •             economics of migration

Recent Publications

2017

Gries, T.; Grundmann, R.; Palnau, I.; Redlin, M. (2017), Technology Diffusion, International Integration and Participation in Developing Economies - A Review of Major Concepts and Findings, International Economics and Economic Policy (forthcoming).

Gries, T.; Grundmann, R.; Palnau, I.; Redlin, M. (2017), Innovation, Growth and Participation in Advanced Economies - A Review of Major Concepts and Findings, International Economics and Economic Policy, 14(2): 293-351.

Gries, T.; Redlin, M. (2017), Pirates - The young and the jobless: The effect of youth bulges and youth labor market integration on maritime piracy, Defence and Peace Economics (forthcoming).

Gries, T., Jungblut, S., Krieger, T. & Meyer, H. 2017. Economic Retirement Age and Lifelong Learning - a theoretical model with heterogeneous labor and biased technical change, German Economic Review, forthcoming.

2016

Gries, T., & Haake, C-J. (2016) Towards an Economic Theory of Destabilization War, Peace Economics and Peace Science, 22 (4): 377–384.

Gries, T.; Kraft, M. & Simon M. (2016). Explaining inter-provincial migration in China, Papers in Regional Science, 4 (95): 709-731.

Gries, T., Jungblut, S. & Naudé, W. (2016). The Entrepreneurship Beveridge Curve, International Journal of Economic Theory, 12 (2): 151–165.

2015

Gries, T.; Palnau, I. (2015), Sustaining Civil Peace: A Configurational Comparative Analysis, Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 21(4):467-478.

Gries, T.; Grundmann, R.; Palnau, I. Redlin, M. (2015), Does Technological Change Drive Inclusive Industrialization? A Review of Major Concepts and Findings, UNIDO, UNU Merit, United Nations University, Working Paper Series, No. 2015-044.

Gries, T., & Grundmann, R. (2015). Fertility and Modernization: The Role of Urbanization in Developing Countries, Journal of International Development, online first.

Gries, T., Naude, W. & Bilkic, N. (2015). Playing the Lottery or Dressing Up? A Model of Firm-Level Heterogeneity and the Decision to Export, The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 67: 1-17.

Gries, T.; Meierrieks, D. & Redlin, M. (2015). Oppressive Governments, Dependence on the United States and Anti-American Terrorism, Oxford Economic Papers, 67 (1): 83-103.

Guo, Z.; Feng, Y. & Gries T., (2015).Changes of China’s agri-food exports to Germany caused by its accession to WTO and the 2008 financial crisis, China Agricultural Economic Review, 7(2): 262 – 279.

Dimant, E.; Krieger, T., Redlin, M. (2015). A Crook is a Crook … But is He Still a Crook Abroad? On the Effect of Immigration on Destination-Country Corruption, German Economic Review, Vol. 16, No. 4, pp. 464–489.

2014

Gries, T. & Grundmann, R. (2014). Trade and fertility in the developing world: the impact of trade and trade structure. Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 27, Issue 4, pp 1165-1186.

Gries, T., & Ha Van Dung, (2014). Household Savings and Productive Capital Formation in Rural Vietnam: Insurance vs. Social Network, Modern Economy, Vol. 5, 878-894.

Gries, T.; Meierrieks, D. & Redlin, M. (2014). Providing aid to repressive terrorist source countries does not make the U.S. any safer, The LSE’s daily blog on American Politics and Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science.

Gries. T. (2014) Low-Carbon Economic Mechanism, in: Low-Carbon Economics - Theory and application, edited by Xue Jinjun, World Scientific, 2013, ch.22, pp. 361-382.

2013

Bilkic, N., Carreras Painter, B., Gries, T. (2013). Unsustainable Sovereign Debt - Is the Euro Crisis only the Tip of the Iceberg? International Economics and Economic Policy, Vol. 10, Issue 1, pp. 1-45.

Gries, T., (2013), Global Asymmetries and their Implications for Climate and Industrial Policies, in: Pathways to Industrialization in the Twenty-First Century - New Challenges and Emerging Paradigms, edited by Szirmai, A., Naudé, W., & Alcorta, L., , Oxford University Press, 2013, ch. 11, pp.293-323.

Gries, T., Meierrieks, D.; (2013): Do banking crises cause terrorism? Economics Letters Vol. 119, 321–324.

2012

Gries, T., Meierrieks, D. (2012), Causality Between Terrorism and Economic Growth, Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 50, Issue 1, pp.91-104.

Gries, T., Bilkic, N.; (2012): Stay in school or start working? - The human capital investment decision under uncertainty and irreversibility, Labour Economics, Vol. 19, 706–717.

Gravemeyer, S., Gries, T., Xue, J.;(2012): Poverty in Shenzhen, in: Rising China in the changing World Economy, Edited by Liming Wang, 396 – 412.

Gries, T., Meierrieks, D., (2012) Economic performance and terrorist activity in Latin America, Defence and Peace Economics, Vol. 23, Issue 5, pp. 447-470..

2011

Gries, T. ; Naude, W.,(2011) Entrepreneurship, Structural Change and a Global Economic Crisis, Entrepreneurship Research Journal, Vol.1 Issue 3.

Gries, T.; Wieneke, A. (2011): SME Performance in Transition Economies: The Financial Regulation and Firm Level Corruption Nexus, Journal of Comparative Economics, Vol 39, Issue 2, pp. 221-229.

Gravemeyer, S.; Gries, T.; Xue, J. (2011): Income Determination and Income Discrimination in Shenzhen, Urban Studies, Vol. 48, 1457-1475.

Gries, T.; Kraft, M.; Meierrieks, D. (2011): Financial Deepening, Trade Openness and Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean, Applied Economics, Vol. 43, Issue 30, pp. 4729-4739.

Gries, T.; Redlin, M. (2011): International integration and the determinants of regional development in China, Economic Change and Restructuring, Vol. 44 Pages 149-177.

Gries, T.; Krieger, T.; Meierrieks, D. (2011): Causal Linkages Between Domestic Terrorism and Economic Growth, Defence and Peace Economics, Vol. 22, Issue 5, pp. 493-508.

Gries, T.; Kraft, M.; Piek, C. (2011): Interregional Migration, Self-selection and the Returns to Education in Brazil, The Annals of Regional Science, Vol. 46 Pages 707-732.

Gries, T. (2011), Internationale Umweltpolitik bei akkumulierender und asymmetrischer Verschmutzungsdynamik, Heilemann, U., Welfens, P.J.J., Zukunftsfähige Wirtschaftspolitik für Deutschland und Europa, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2011, Seiten 215-246.

2010

Gries, T.; Naude, W. (2010): Entrepreneurship and Structural Economic Transformation, Small Business Economics, Volume 34, Number 1, Pages 13-29, January 2010.

2009

Gries, T.; Kraft, M.; Meierrieks, D. (2009): Linkages between Financial Deepening, Trade Openness and Economic Development: Causality Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. World Development, Volume 37, Issue 12, December 2009, Pages 1849-1860.

Gries, T.; Naude, W. (2009): The Optimal Distance to Port for Exporting Firms, Journal of Regional Science, Volume 49, Issue 3, August 2009, 513-528.

Gries, T.; Naude, W. (2009): Explaining Regional Export Performance in a Developing Country: The Role of Geography and Relative Factor Endowments. Regional Studies, Volume 43, Issue 7, 2009, 967 – 979.

Gries, T.; Naude, W. (2009): Entrepreneurship and regional economic growth: towards a general theory of start-ups, Innovation: The European Journal of Social Science Research, Volume 22, Issue 3, 2009, Pages 309 – 328.

Gries, T.; Redlin, M. (2009): China´s provincial disparities and the determinants of provincial inequality. Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Volume 7, Number 2, May 2009.

2008

Gries, T.; Naude, W.; Wood, E.; Meintjes, A. (2008): Regional Determinants of Entrepreneurial Start-Ups in a Developing Country. Entrepreneurship & Regional Development, Vol. 20, No.2, 111 - 124.

Gries, T.; Naude, W. (2008): Trade and Endogenous Formation of Regions in a Developing Country, Review of Developing Economics, Vol.12, No.2, pp. 248-275.

Gries, T.; Xue, J. (2008): 中国的不平等——收入分配差距研究

2007

Gries, T.; Jungblut, S. (2007): Employment Effects of International Factor Mobility - A Theoretical Approach with Heterogenous Labor, Journal of Economic Integration, Vol. 22, No.2, pp. 339-368.

Gries, T. (2007): Global Shift – The European Union, the United States, and the Emergence of China, in: Tilly, R., Welfens, P.J.J., Heise, M. (2007), 50 Years of EU Economic Dynamics, Springer, 2007.

2005

Gries, T. (2005): Endogenous Formation of Regions in Developing Countries, Journa of Development Perspective, Special Issue, 2005

Gries, T.; Sievert, G.; Wieneke A. (2005): Rent a Bureaucrat, in: H.-G. Napp, Finanzwissenschaft im Wandel, Bern: Peter Lang Verlagsgruppe.

2004

Gries, T.; Sievert G.; Wieneke A. (2004): Interbank market frictions, international banks and growth, International Economics and Economic Policy, Vo.1, 157-171.

Gries T.; Langeleh, D. (2004): Anreizkompatibilität als zentrales Element eines neu gestalteten Gesundheitsmarktes, Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik Vol. 5, No. 3, pp. 293–311.

Gries, T. (2004): International Spill-Over of Technologies and Regional Agglomeration and Development, Science Research Management, Vol. 25, 145-151.

Gries, T.; Jungblut, S. (2004): Employment Effects of Foreign Direct Investments - a Theoretical Analysis with Heterogenous Labour, in:Gilroy, N.M., Gries, T.,Naude, W. (Eds.), Multinational Enterprises, Foreign Direct Investment and Growth in Africa...

Gries, T.; Naudé, W. (2004): On Global Economic Growth and the Prospects for Africa to Catch Up, in: Gilroy, B.M., Gries, T.,Naude, W. (Eds.), Multinational Enterprises, Foreign Direct Investment and Growth in Africa: South African Perspectives.

Gilroy, B.M.; Gries, T.; Naudé, W.; Schmidt, K.-H. (2004): Obstacles Facing German Enterprises in South Africa, in: Gilroy, B.M., Gries, T., Naude, W. (Eds.), Multinational Enterprises, Foreign Direct Investment and Growth in Africa: South African...

2003

Internet Dynamics, Trade and Globalization, Comments on Freund, C.L./Weinhold, D., The Internet and Evolving Patterns of International Trade, in: Barfield, C.E. /Heiduk, G. /Welfens P.J.J. eds.(2003) Internet, Economic Growth and Globalization, Springe 2003

2002

Gries, T. (2002): Catching-up, Falling-behind, and the Role of FDIs - a Model of Endogenous Growth and Development, South African Journal of Economics, Vol. 70, No.4, pp. 273-281.

2001

Gries, T. (2001): Soziales Marktmodell Europa versus liberales Marktmodell Amerika – gibt es Sieger beim Wettbewerb der Marktwirtschaften? Wirtschaftsdienst 8/2001.

Gries, T.; Jungblut, S.; Meyer, H. (2001): European Integration and regional Agglomeration in Eastern Europe, in: Kulikowski, R.; Nahorski, Z.; Owsinski, J.W. (eds) (2001), Modelling of Economic Transition Phenomena.

1999

Gries, T.; Birk, A. (1999): Die US amerikanische Dienstleistungsgesellschaft – ein Modell für Deutschland, Wirtschaftsdienst.

Gries, T.; Jungblut, S.; Meyer, H. (1999): Foreign Direct Investments in the Process of Transition, in: International Advances in Economic Research, Vol. 5.

1998

Gries, T.; Meyer, H. (1998): Information Technologies, Endogenous Human Capital Depreciation and Unemployment, in: Gries, T. / Suhl, L. (Hrsg) (1998), Economic Aspects of Digital Information Technology, DUV.

Gries, T.; Jungblut, S. (1998): The Impacts of Information Technologies on Innovation Dynamics and Labor Demand, in: Gries, T. / Suhl, L. (Hrsg) (1998), Economic Aspects of Digital Information Technology, DUV.

Gries, T.; Jungblut, S. (1998): The Dynamics of Growth and Employment in a Two-Sector Model of Job Matching, in: Kischka / Lorenz / Derigs / Danschke / Kleinschmidt / Möhring (Hrsg) (1998), Operations Research Proceedings, Springer 1998.

Gries, T.; Jungblut, S.; Meyer, H. (1998): Russland vor der Schuldenfalle?, in: Vestnik Sankt Peterskogo Universiteta – Seraja Ekonomiceskaja, St. Petersburg.

Gries, T.; Jungblut, S.; Meyer, H. (1998): Humankapitalabschreibungen, Wachstum und Arbeitslosigkeit, in: Weizsäcker, R.K. (1998), Bildung und Wirtschaftswachstum, Schriften des Vereins für Socialpolitik, Neue Folge Band 258, Berlin.

Gries, T.; Jungblut, S.; Meyer, H. (1998): Humankapitalabschreibungen, Wachstum und Arbeitslosigkeit, in: Weizsäcker, R.K. (1998), Bildung und Wirtschaftswachstum, Schriften des Vereins für Socialpolitik, Neue Folge Band 258, Berlin.

1997

Gries, T.; Jungblut, S. (1997): Catching-up and Structural Change, Economia Internationale, Vol. 50, No. 4, pp. 3-24.

Gries, T.; Jungblut, S. (1997): Catching-up of Economies in Transformation, in: Welfens, P.J.J. / Wolf, H.C. (1997), Banking, International Capital Flows and Growth in Europe, Springer, pp. 297-311.

Gries, T.; Birk, A. (1997): Amerikanisches Job-Wunder versus deutsches Produktivitätswunder - Ein Vergleich der Arbeitsmarktstrategien, Wirtschaftsdienst, Heft 2.

1996

Gries, T. (1996): A Dynamic Model of a Reconstruction Economy, in: Owsinski, J.W., Nahorski, Z. (1996), Modelling and Analysing Economies in Transition.

1995

Gries, T. (1995): Neue regionale Wachstumstheorie und Humankapital als regionaler charakteristischer Faktor, in: Gahlen, Hesse, Ramser, (1995), Standort und Region, Neue Ansätze zur Regionalökonomik.

1994

Gries, T.; Hentschel, C.; Wigger, B. (1994): Endogenous Growth and R&D Models - A Critical Appraisal of Recent Developments, Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, Band 213/1, pp. 64-84.

1993

Gries, T.; Wigger, B. (1993): The Dynamics of Upgrading or how to catch-up, Economia Internationale, Vol. 46, No. 4, pp. 3-13.

1990

Gries, T. (1990): Wechselkurstheorie und internationale monetäre Transmissionen - eine Übersicht, in: Jahrbuch für Sozialwissenschaften, Band. 41.

1989

Gries, T. (1989): Chaos in the Market of Foreign Exchange, in: Rieder, Gessner, Peyer, Immhoff, Radermacher (eds) (1989), Methods of Operations Research.

Recent Working Paper

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Recent Guests

2017

Dr. Axel Wieneke from the University of Queensland, Australia, is visting the Chair of International Growth and Business Cycle Theory

Conference Presantations

2017

Growth Trends and Systematic Pattern of Booms and Busts – Testing 200 Years of Business Cycle Dynamics presented by Marlon Fritz at the 11. ifo Dresden Workshop Makroökonomik und Konjunktur in Dresden

Pirates - The young and the jobless: The effect of youth bulges and youth labor market integration on maritime piracy presented by Margarete Redlin at the 2017 Annual Conference on Development Economics and Policy, June 1-2, 2017, at the Georg-August University Goettingen

An Economic Theory of "Destabilization War" presented by Thomas Gries at the 54th Annual Meetings of the Public Choice Society, March 2-5, 2017 in New Orleans, Louisiana

An Economic Theory of "Destabilzation War" - Compromise for Peace Versus Conventional, Guerilla, or Terrorist Warfare presented by Thomas Gries at the Conference on Political Economy of Democracy and Dictatorship, February 22-24, 2017 at the Westfälische Wilhelms-University Münster

2016

An Economic Theory of "Destabilization War" - Compromise for Peace versus Conventional, Guerilla, or Terrorist Warfare presented by Thomas Gries at the 2016 Annual International Conference of the Research Group on Development Economics, June 3-4, 2016, at Heidelberg University Heidelberg - Verein für Socialpolitik

An Economic Theory of "Destabilization War" presented by Thomas Gries at the 16th Jan Tinbergen European Peace Science Conference, June 20-22, 2016, at the Catholic University of the Sacred Heart Milan, Italy

Secular Stagnation? Statistical Evidence for an Unprecedented Phenomenon presented by Thomas Gries at the RCEF 2016 (Rimini Conference in Economics and Finance), September 16-18, 2016, at the Balsillie School of International Affairs and the Centre for International Governance Innovation, Waterloo, Ontario

2015

Participating in the Benefits of Technical Change and Innovations, was Technical Change Social Inclusive? - A Global perspective presented by Thomas Gries at the 17. Göttinger Workshop "Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen" at the Georg-August University Göttingen

Destructive Agents, Executive Compensation and Excessive Risk Taking presented by Thomas Gries at the conference on Operational Risk, March 19, 2017, at the House of Finance, Goethe University Frankfurt

Resource price shocks, poor governance and private sector development. A simple model of resource curse presented by Natasa Bilkic and Thomas Gries at the Growth and Development Workshop Economic Growth and Development: The Structural and Institutional Factors and Money and Finance Workshop, The Great Recession: Moving Ahead, May 21-22, 2015 at the Rimini Centre For Economic Analysis at thePalacongressi DI Rimini in Rimini

2014

Oppressive Governments, US Closeness, and Anti-US Terrorism presented by Margarete Redlin at the Jahrestagung des Vereins für Sozialpolitik, Hamburg, 7-10. September, 2014.

Maritime Piracy: Socio-Economic and Institutional Determinants presented by Margarete Redlin at the 14th Jan Tinbergen European Peace Science Conference, Den Haag, Niederlande, 23-25. Juni 2014

Maritime Piracy: Socio-Economic and Institutional Determinants presented by Margarete Redlin at the 51st Annual Meetings of the Public Choice Society, Charleston, USA, 6-9. März, 2014.

Oppressive Governments, Dependence on the United States and Anti-American Terrorism presented by Thomas Gries at the Terrorism and Policy Conference, May 21-24, 2014 in Dallas, Texas

Destructive Agents, Finance Firms and Systemic Risk by Thomas Gries at he 6th IFABS Conference on Alternative Futures For Global Banking, June 18-20, 2014 in Lisbon, Portugal

2013

When to Attack an Oppressive Government? presented by Thomas Gries at the 17th Annual International Conference on Economics and Security, June 13-16, 2013 in Stockholm, Sweden

The Option to Attack: a Dynamic Decision Model of Keeping Peace or Turning Violent under Large Uncertainties presented by Thomas Gries at the Jan Tinbergen European Peace Science Conference, June 24-26, 2013 in Milan, Italia

2012

Trade Openness and Economic Growth: A Panel Causality Analysis presented by Margarete Redlin at the Economics und Management Vortragsreihe, Universität Paderborn, 12. Dezember, 2012.

Trade Openness and Economic Growth: A Panel Causality Analysis presented by Margarete Redlin at the International Conference The Global Economy, Seattle, USA, 17-18. März, 2012.

2007

International Integration, Regional Development and Technological Catching Up in China presented by Margarete Redlin at the WIDER Conference „Southern Engines of Global Growth: China, India, Brazil, and South Africa (CIBS)“, Helsinki, Finland, 07-08. September, 2007.

1997

International Trade and Unemployment in a Vintage Growth Model presented by Thomas Gries at the 72nd Annual Conference, July 9-13, 1997 in Seattle, Washington

1995

Catching Up. Capital Formation and Structural Change presented by Thomas Gires at the International Conference of the university of Potsdam, October 13-14, 1995 in Potsdam, Germany

Research Projects

2017

Quantitative Economics Days

held on the 4th and 5th of April, 2017. The QEDs are a workshop aimed at researchers who use econometrics, experiments or mathematical models.

2012

Gries, T., Prior, U., Sureth, C. (2012): A Tax Paradox for Investment Decisions under Uncertainty, Journal of Public Economics Theory, Vol 14, Issue 3, pp. 521-545.

2011

Gries, T.; Naude, W. (2011): Entrepreneurship and Human Development - A Capability Approach. Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 95, 216-224.

Further information:

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